Seeking out the suicide bombers
for World Affairs Correspondent,
Anti-terrorist experts are floundering about trying to understand Islamic suicide bombers in the UK and the rest of Europe.


Experts assessed predictions of who might become a terrorist
The experts came together and argued together at a conference in London organised by the Centre for Defence Studies at King's College and the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment.

The conference sought to assemble "the puzzle that will help us better understand what determines and motivates the actions of individual jihadists."

The puzzle however remained frustratingly in pieces.

One major argument was about the issue of psychological profiling. This seeks to understand the motives of one group of terrorists in order to predict who might be the next.


I believe the psychological profiling of Islamic terrorists is a complete waste of time
Dr John Horgan
University of St Andrews

To a layman it sounds quite reasonable - and indeed there was a fascinating analysis of the 7/7 London bombers - but it came under sustained attack from one of the speakers, Dr John Horgan, a psychologist at the University of St Andrews, which has specialised in anti-terrorist studies.

"I believe the psychological profiling of Islamic terrorists is a complete waste of time," he said.

"It will not work. It means different things to different people and there is the wrong assumption that if we can identify the traits of known terrorists we can move into predictions.

"The terrorists are not a homogenous population and we simply do not understand why some move from legal activities to illegal."

"Too much is based on a limited range of people and we are seeing only the tip of the iceberg."

I asked Dr Horgan afterwards what should be done instead.

Social profiling

"Psychological profiling is beguiling," he said. "Social profiling, looking at the social background, is more useful.

"It's also important to look at the ways in which a person gets drawn into terrorism and from that to develop counter -terrorism strategies. There is an "IED" progression, from involvement to engagement and then, in some, to disengagement from terrorism.

"At points along this line, we can try to stop them. For example in Northern Ireland, the racketeering that went on in paramilitary groups was exposed. That undermined the idealism of some who thought they might join."

'Al Capone approach'

Others at the conference suggested the "Al Capone" approach, in which the financial dealings of activists could be targeted.


Mohammed Siddique Khan explained why he carried out the attacks in a video
of the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment had analysed the London suicide bombers and came up with a typology, which, he said, provided important lessons.

He identified four types of terrorist in the four young men who blew themselves and '

The entrepreneur, or leader, was Mohammed Siddique Khan. This figure, said Peter Nessen, is the crucial one, who makes things happen. He is often an idealist as Khan was. Khan had an "activist mindset." He had been active in protests on behalf of the Kashmiri community before. He had a strong sense of injustice on behalf of Muslims around the world.

"But this figure often needs contacts with a radical imam for religious guidance and, for practical purposes, contacts with the jihadi infrastructure, though instructions can also be got from the internet,".

The second figure, the protégé, he identified in this group as Shezad Tanweer.

"The protégé might be younger and certainly looks up to the leader. He is also activist minded, also educated and is sometimes skilled. He might be used for bomb making. Tanweer went to Pakistan with Khan in 1994, so was close to him."

The third type, the misfit, was Hasib Hussain.

The misfit, according to this theory, is someone with a troubled background, not an idealist. He joins because of personal problems, which he thinks will thereby be solved. He might even join out of loyalty to his friends. He is streetwise but not well educated and might have violent tendencies.

The fourth type, the drifter, was said to be Jermain Lindsay.

"This kind of person drifts into the group through circumstances or contacts. He might not have been an activist before and might not be entrusted with key details of the group's activities," said Nessen.

The lessons, Nessen said, were that there were different ways into terrorism, that the role of the "entrepreneur" was crucial, but that this was not enough. There had to be connections outside the group, to religious leaders and jihadi structures.

We were also given a glimpse into the phenomenon of converts, some of whom, like the shoe-bomber Richard Reid, then went onto to violence.

Alison Pargeter, of King's College pointed to similarities between 34 converts she had identified. They were often fragile individuals from deprived and broken homes, looking for a way out. They were also vulnerable to influence as they were not able to distinguish between moderate and more extreme branches of Islam and were drawn into "purer" forms from which the leap to violence was easier.

As for social profiling, there was an interesting account of the background in Spain, which suffered in the Madrid bombs in 2004.

Professor Fernando Reinares of the Elcano Royal Institute in Madrid, said that, unlike the situation in the UK, there was no mature second or third generation of immigrants in Spain yet, so most of the 188 jihadists arrested since 2001 had been from abroad, mostly Morocco and Algeria. The Spanish authorities were now looking closely at the influences on the upcoming generations.

Professor Reinares also pointed out the problems of prediction and said the Madrid bombers were very varied, with both university graduates and illiterates in their ranks.

I felt that the conference rather ignored some of the political influences on suicide bombers, like the world events -Afghanistan, Iraq, the Middle East, Chechnya, Bosnia and others - that provide a basic motivation for many of them.

In one off-the-record session there was a reference to this from a contributor who did call for a better Western approach on a global scale, arguing for patience and a clear human rights framework for policies.

Perhaps this was felt to be too intangible for such a meeting. Certainly some of the policemen there were more interested in what they could do in practice.

'No silver bullet'

One of them, Chief Inspector Mick Gillick of West Midlands police, who works with Muslim and other communities in his patch, said there was "no silver bullet."

"I am a little bit sceptical about profiling being the answer to predicting terrorism," he told me, "though I recognise the concept of the entrepreneur. However, because Khan became a terrorist after being an activist, it does not follow that other activists will become terrorists.


There will be more bombers
Michael Taarnby
Danish Institute for International Studies

"I know that intelligence agencies these days are looking "upstream" to see who might be shaping up as suspects, but my role is to develop relations with the communities and this is vital because they will be the ones who tell us if something is suspicious."

One speaker who had made a grimly successful prediction was a ZDF German television journalist Elmar Thevessen. He made a documentary in 2004 about a possible attack on the London Underground.

The German authorities were on high alert because of the World Cup this summer, he said, worried because a jihadist pamphlet called "The Unfulfilled Duty" had recently appeared.

It was, unusually, written in German, not Arabic or English, a sign that those behind the pamphlet were now appealing to young people who were deeply embedded in German society.

Michael Taarnby of the Danish Institute for International Studies, who has analysed jihadists across Europe, predicted what everyone fears.

"There will be more bombers,
By Paul Reynolds

UN confirms more cases of bird flu in Egypt

Cairo - A total of 12 people have now contracted the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu in Egypt and four of them have died of the disease, the World Health Organisation said on Saturday.

The infections brought the worldwide toll to 204 cases, 113 of them fatal, the UN agency said on its website.

The Egyptian health ministry had submitted samples to the UN agency for confirmation in WHO-approved laboratories.

"All cases confirmed by the ministry of health are now listed in the WHO cumulative table of laboratory-confirmed cases," .

Only Indonesia now has more confirmed cases of bird flu in humans than Egypt. The north African country is equal second with Turkey with 12 confirmed cases.




Infections in humans or birds have now been reported in 19 of Egypt's 26 provinces.

The most populous country in the Arab world, Egypt lies at the crossroads between Asia and Africa on a major route for migratory birds.

The disease was first detected in birds in Egypt in February. The first human case was reported on March 18.

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Blasts Kill 18 in Egyptian Resort City
Three explosions rocked the Egyptian resort city of Dahab at the height of the tourist season Monday, killing at least 18 people and wounding more than 150 at just one hotel, according to the doctor in charge of the Sinai peninsula rescue squad.

Police said the explosions hit the central part of the city where there are many shops, restaurants, bars and guesthouses. The blasts ripped through the town shortly after nightfall when the streets would have been jammed with tourists, mainly with Europeans, Israelis and expatriates living in Egypt.

Dr. Said Essa, who runs the rescue squad, said his casualty figures were for victims at the el-Khaleeg Hotel only. He said there were casualties from the other explosions.

A witness, Serge Loussararian, told CNN that an explosion took place in an area with restaurants and bars. "We heard the explosion and then we saw a big light. And a lot of people running,.

Terrorist attacks have killed nearly 100 people at several tourist resorts of Egypt's Sinai region in the past two years.

Bombings in the resorts of Taba and Ras Shitan, near the Israeli border, killed 34 people in October 2004. Last July, suicide attackers in the resort of Sharm el-Sheik killed at least 64 people, mainly tourists.

The Egyptian government has said the militants who carried out the bombings were locals without international connections, but other security agencies have said they suspect al-Qaida.

For years, Dahab was popular, low-key haven for young Western backpackers — including Israelis — drawn by prime scuba diving sites and cheap hotels, which mainly consisted of huts set up along the beach. In recent years, a number of more upscale hotels have been built, including a five-star Hilton resort.

Dahab is located on the Gulf of Aqaba on the eastern side of the Sinai Peninsula and is about 65 miles south of Taba, near the border at the southern tip of Israel.

In Israel, the country's rescue service said it had raised the alert level. Israeli Channel 10 TV reported that Israel had closed the border crossing at Taba, preventing vehicles from entering Sinai. It said a stream of Israeli vehicles were leaving Sinai.

Many Israelis travel to the Sinai for beach holidays.

Israel's ambassador in Cairo, Shalom Cohen, told Israel's Channel 10 TV that there were three explosions, hitting a hotel, a police station and a marketplace.

"We don't know of Israelis" who were hurt, he said, though some Israelis were known to be in Dahab.

Cohen said the best thing Israeli tourists in Sinai could do now would be to "go home."

He said there have been repeated warnings from the Israeli government against visiting the Sinai Desert, where Israelis have been targeted in attacks in the past.

"Unfortunately, the warnings came true," .

The Israeli rescue service, Magen David Adom, offered help through the International Red Cross and the Egyptian Red Crescent but has not received a reply, the service said in a statement.

It said about 20 ambulances were standing by at the Taba crossing between Israel and Egypt if needed.

China pledges help to stabilise the Middle East
PRESIDENT Hu Jintao signalled yesterday that Beijing would play a greater role in the affairs of the Middle East when he paid a historic visit to Saudi Arabia, the main supplier of oil for China’s growing economy.

In an address to the Shura council, Saudi Arabia’s appointed legislature, the Chinese leader promised to work with Riyadh and other Arab governments on securing peace in the region.

“The Middle East is a vital region and there will be no achievements and development in the world without a stable Middle East,” said Mr Hu, only the second foreign leader invited to address the assembly.

“Under these current circumstances, China is ready to work with Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries to support peace and growth in the Middle East and build a harmonious world that enjoys constant peace and prosperity.”

Although he did not offer any specifics, Mr Hu’s remarks were seen as a direct challenge to the United States, which for the past half century has dominated security and diplomacy in the region.

China’s ruling Communist Party was at one time regarded by the deeply conservative Islamic Saudi regime as godless and untrustworthy; but the countries formed diplomatic relations in 1990 and recently have grown closer out of economic and political necessity.

Saudi Arabia wants to expand its global relations, once dominated by its strategic partnership with the US but strained after the September 11 attacks in 2001 and the subsequent invasion of Iraq.

China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer after the US, needs to build strong ties with its main supplier, which last year provided 17.5 per cent of the country’s oil needs.

Mr Hu’s visit comes only three months after King Abdullah led a commercial delegation to Beijing. On the return visit this weekend the two sides signed security, defence, health and trade agreements.

The countries also have a shared disdain for Western meddling in their internal affairs, particularly criticism over their human rights records.

The Chinese leader told his hosts that the West should not “hurl false accusations against the internal affairs of other countries, let alone blame a specific civilisation, people or religion for causing problems and conflicts in the world”.
He received a standing ovation.
From Richard Beeston in Riyadh